The Debate - I Missed What is Important

Friday night's debate demonstrated the true problem with our political system...even when millions of Americans tune in to the most highly anticipated debate of this campaign, even when Jim Lehrer of PBS attempted to push the envelope with tough questions, and even when the public more than ever demands to see where each candidate stands on critical issues...we simply can't get a dialogue about what matters most for long-term success for our great nation. (And don't even get me started about the post-debate review...please, please whatever you do, do not watch the cable news analysis of the debate. Unless you find it important, as Harold Ford noted on MSNBC, that Obama should lean forward more to give the appearance of leadership).

The debate focused on foreign policy (after 40 minutes of each candidate bumbling through their thoughts on the current financial bailout). So what did we learn? Well John McCain believes it is imperative that we win in Iraq. We cannot let our soldiers come home without "victory." I'm pretty sure this was already clear, but we still didn't learn what victory actually entails or how we will get there. Likewise, Obama wants to transfer troops over to Afghanistan (also without an Iraq solution...he was so "backward-looking" on Iraq being the wrong decision that was mishandled, which all U.S. citizens now know...let's become "solution-oriented).

But will this just lead to another Iraq? How will this endeavor be different? There are differences, to be sure, but this initiative will still need support of NATO allies and reconstruction in a country with basically no educational system and an economy supported primarily by an illegal poppy trade. What have we done on the international scene that supports the claim we are ready to take on this challenge? (Maybe the new civilian researve corps??)

The rest of the conversation focused primarily on how to handle relations with rogue nations, such as Pakistan and Iran. Don't get me wrong, I am not belittling the threat of terrorism or the impact it has on our economy and national security. But 20 percent of our federal budget goes to national defense and the agenda will continue ensure we have ample national security (how these funds are utililzed is a different matter - I agree with Obama there must be greater focus on high risk areas such as ports). Further, the candidates fought bitterly about whether or not to talk directly with the Iranian leader. How about we consider how to best leverage our economic standing, possibly remove our need, and the need of other coutries, for Iranian oil to boost our bargaining power with Iran, rather than bicker about where to sit at the table?

These issues affect the families of our military and anyone who has been affected by an act of terrorism. But for the millions of Americans, what really matters will be how the U.S. maintains its standing as the dominant world economy. The candidates only gave lip service to how to handle relations with Russia, and barely mentioned countries like China (Obama did in his closing remark) and India.

John McCain, to his credit, did at least mention the importance of Russia's standing as an energy power, both with its oil and natural gas reserves. It it now working to become energy partners with Venezuela through a joint venture. We've already seen the rise of world oil prices. Our economy is not only supporting OPEC and Saudi Arabia, but also the rise of dictators in these growing world powers. Until we innovate and significant reduce our oil consumption we will be held captive by these powers economically, which will no doubt reduce our standard of living at home.

Further, China has $1.4 trillion of our debt (great article in the Atlantic Monthly). What will their investments in our financial institutions, treasury bills, and Fortune1000 companies mean to you and me? What will our continued trade deficit (growing by $1 billion a day) mean for jobs in specific industries? What will happen if the Chinese pull money out of our institutions as they become more and more concerned about the current credit crunch? These aren't easy questions, but will have a fundamental impact on all of us. Let's start putting plans in place to fight this risk (or at least acknowledge the situation).

So the solution to all of this is to educate and innovate, right? If we can stave ourselves off of oil and keep while collar jobs at home, then all will be ok. But while this was the case just a decade ago, the world doesn't see the U.S. as the only outlet for educational expertise. In fact, India is turning out millions of technically-savvy engineers and colleage graduates every year. They are not simply taking "outsourced" jobs, but they are outsourcing their own talent across the world to lead the next wave of innovation.

It was easy to change the international standing of the U.S. in the post-cold war (we went from a bi-polar world to becoming the sole super power). It is much more difficult to adjust to a world with multiple world powers, all with their own competitive advantage (energy reserves, unlimited supplies of labor, etc.). The debate should be more about how we will engage the world in this new order. McCain wants a League of Democracies (Russia has nearly shut-down the UN with their veto power), while Obama understands this group would be meaningless without including non-democratic powers. This is the debate we need to be having.

The question for the next president and beyond will be how to maintain our economic standing, which now supercedes military standing. (For a full overview of State Power, check out this paper by RAND). This will dictate if you will still have a job, or if you will be able to one day buy a home.